2012 Week 1

Back to the grind. Didn’t love the lines this week but I found six bets I liked a lot.

South Carolina to cover the 6.5 in Nashvegas against the Dores

Vanderbilt does not have the horses to hang with the Gamecocks. Lattimore is back and Connor Shaw has a year of experience and success under his belt. More importantly the Gamecocks have had an unbelievable defense the past few years. This year’s squad led by super star DE Clowney, will shut down Vandy and might outscore them.

West Virginia to cover the 25.5 in Morgantown against the Herd

West Virginia is looking to send a message to their new conference breathern in the BIG 12. Hologerson, Geno Smith, the weapons on the outside and their willingness to run it up makes this 25.5 look more like 3.

NC State to cover, getting 3, against the Vols in Atlanta

I think the loss of Rodgers is very bad for Bray and the Vols. Pack CB Amerson will go to work on one side and the lack of balance will lead to turnovers into the hands of the other 3 of the ultratalented Pack back 4 . On the other side, Mike Glennon should be able to run the offense on autopilot, his accuracy will lead to touchdowns and few if any turnovers.

Alabama to cover the 14 in Arlington against Meeeeeeechigan

It all starts and ends with the Tide Oline against an overmatched Mich D. 4 to 5 yards on every first down, short manageable 3^rd downs …..its easy to win that way. I’ve heard a lot of talk this week that Denard Robinson will be able to break big plays against a young, inexperienced Tide D. Ok, because Nick Saban’s defenses are frequently slow, untalented, and prone to mistakes. If Denard takes every snap, I would be shocked.

Tide/Mich Under 47

I don’t expect Michigan to score much if at all. I expect the Tide to run the hell out of the football. The possessions per quarter are going to be very low which in turns brings down the score.

Toledo/Zona Over 60

Neither of these teams care about D. Toledo is used to giving up 60 on their own. Imagine the opposite of the Tide/Michigan game. Track meet.

Week 12 Picks

1-1 midweek. Lost NIU, won Toledo (finally)

Notre Dame/BC over 47.5

The number has dropped from 60 to 47.5 due to potential weather conditions. Uncle Steveo doesn’t care about the stinking weather. The Irish offense will put up a ton of points and the over will get hit by early in the 4^th

Northwestern to cover, giving 15.5, in Evanston against the Gophers (O/U 57.5)

The Wildcats have figured it out, the early season struggles are a thing of the past. They can score in bunches are hitting hard on D. The 57.5 is too big of a number (might hit the under before kick) but they can cover the 15.5 rather easily

Vanderbilt to cover, giving 1.5,  in Knoxville against the Vols (O/U 45)

I like Franklin as a coach and might be irrationally swayed by the Dores being quarterbacked by a blood relative of Aaron Rodgers. The Vols are a hot mess.

Oregon State, getting 2, in Corvallis against the Huskies (O/U 58)

Conference home dog against a back up QB (Montana’s kid) making his first start.

Stanford, giving 17.5, on the Farm against Cal (O/U 56)

Betting on a bounce back from Luck

Kansas State, getting 7.5, in Austin against the Horns (O/U 53.5)

This line is messed up. Gotta be a lot of public $ on the Horns.

Thought hard about USC +14.5, but do not like going against the Ducks against nonSEC teams and Robert Woods at less than 100% kept me away.

Week 11 Picks

Louisville, giving 3, to cover in Papa John’s against Pitt (44)

Bet against Louisville a few times and have gotten burned. Pitt is awful on the road and may just be bad. Teddy Bridgewater is starting to make plays for the Cardinals and Charlie Strong’s D is putting hats on people.

Ohio State, giving 3, to cover in West Lafayette against the Boilermakers (46)

Braxton Miller and the Buckeye offense has put up points consistently the past few weeks and the Silver Bullet D has been strong all season. The Boilermakers have a couple of decent wins that I didn’t think they could get. But the Buckeyes aren’t the Gophers or the Illini.

Illinois, PK, to win at home against the Wolverines (48)

Denard Robinson and the Wolverines are bad in November and bad on the road. Illini Defense is tailor made to contain Denard’s scrambling and his arm has been embarrassingly bad. The Illini O will make enough plays to win comfortably.

NC State, giving 2.5, to cover in Chestnut Hill against BC (45.5)

Mike Glennon has been playing well all season and TOB’s homecoming will provide the Pack with extra motivation to get this win on the road.

Baylor, giving 20.5, to cover in Lawrence against the Jayhawks (75)

RG3 is special and should be able to throw up a bunch on the Jayhawks.

Missouri, getting 1.5, to cover in Columbia against the Longhorns (59)

Texas is a different (read: much worse) team on the road. James Franklin is a difficult QB to deal with and should be able to pull of the upset as the home dog.

TCU, getting 16, to cover in Idaho against the Broncos (58)

These teams have played a lot in the last few years. I love Gary Patterson as a coach and have faith that he comes up with a game plan to keep this close. I am FULLY aware that I am breaking one of my rules of not betting against Kellen Moore and Chris Petersen.

Georgia, giving 12.5, to cover in Athens against War Eagle (53)

Georgia seems to be find the best version of themselves lately. It still isn’t good enough to be beat a team worth a shit, but they are the best mediocre SEC team. Maybe the best by far. ALLBARN’s QB issues really bother me.

Stanford, giving 3, to cover on the Farm against the Ducks (68)

Andrew Luck, Stanford’s power, and Oregon’s recent injury issues makes the difference.

Bama, giving 18, to cover in Starksville against Miss. State (43)

The Bama D might cover the spread themselves.

Northwestern, giving 17, to cover in Evanston against Rice (68.5)

I think the win in Lincoln help this Wildcat team turn a corner that they should have turned 6 weeks ago. They can move the ball on anyone and now finish with 6. Their D is making stops and big plays.

week 10 picks

West Va to cover, giving 13, in Morgantown against Louisville (O/U 52)

Geno Smith and Holgerson at home against a BS opponent. C’mon Son

Wisconsin to cover, giving 26.5, in Madison against the Boilermakers (O/U 58)

Gotta to go down with the ship. They are at home against a bottom of the conference team and they need to right the ship in the worse way. Bucky rolls.

Northwestern to cover, getting 17.5, in Lincoln against the Huskers (O/U 63)

Just heard this morning that Taylor Martinez has a busted thumb on his throwing hand. Taking a flyer on my boy Fitz and this terribly disappointing Wildcat club. I think the Cats can score with the Huskers for a while.

Texas Tech to cover, getting 14, in Austin against the Horns (O/U 61.5)

I think the Raiders can throw on the Horns and the early start (11am central) will mitigate some of the home field advantage.

Arkansas to cover, giving 5.5, in Fayetteville against the Cocks (O/U 52)

The Hogs have burned me a bit lately but I trust the Bobby is a good enough coach to move the ball against a stout Cocks D. I can’t trust an unproven QB on the road in the SEC (outside of Nashville, Oxford, Lexington, and most of the time StarkVegas) especially when his offense is one dimensional.

Wolfpack to cover, getting 3.5, in Carter-Finley against the Heels (O/U 55)

Tom Obrien always beats the Heels.

Oregon to cover, giving 16.5, in Seattle against the Huskies (O/U 74.5)

Does Washington=Stanford? No. Is 16.5 less than the 3 touchdowns that the Ducks should get against everybody else save maybe Matt Barkley? Yes. Hitting the Ducks hard.

Sun Devils to cover, giving 8.5, in Pasadena against the Bruins (O/U 56.5)

The Bruins are awful. Devils should be able to sling it all over the yard.

LSU to Win vs Bama (+165)

Screw the 4.5, I am rolling with the Hatter. Can not wait for this game. I think the Tide’s lack of playmakers on the outside will be the difference along with special teams and turnovers.

Stanford to cover, giving 21, in Corvallis against the Beavers (O/U 61)

Andrew Luck plays QB for the Stanford Cardinal.

week 8 picks

Below are the week 8 picks. I couldn't finish the write up because I was drinking and yelling at Holgerson last night and this morning I had to change a car battery. Excited for the games today, going to be a lot of fun.

Illinois to cover, giving 4, to Purdue in West Lafayette (o/u 51.5)

The Purdue D cannot do what the Buckeye D did to the Illini. However, the Illini D can damn sure have a repeat performance against the Boilermakers.

Arkansas to cover, giving 15.5, to the Rebels in Oxford (o/u 56.5)

Arkansas is the 3^rd best team in the SEC and the Rebels are the one of the worst teams the SEC has seen in a decade.

Clemson to cover, giving 10.5, to the Heels in Death Valley (o/u 58)

The Tigers had a scare in College Park last week, the Heels just are not good enough to give them another one in Death Valley.

Oklahoma St. to cover, giving 7, in Columbia to Mizzou (o/u 69)

This line does not make a whole lot of sense. I probably would have grabbed the Pokes at 17.5. Brock Osweiler and the Sun Devils moved the ball all over the Tigers and Oklahoma State is stratospheres better. Weeden and Blackmon are outstanding.

Oklahoma State/Mizzou over 69

See above. Plus James Franklin will make plays against the Pokes D.

Oregon State to cover, getting 3, in Pullman against Wazzu (o/u 59)

Northwestern to cover, getting 4.5, in Evanston against the Nittany Lions (o/u 47.5)

Northwestern to Win (+165)

Alabama to cover, giving 29.5, against the Vols at Bryant-Denney (o/u 46)

USC/Notre Dame over 57.5

Stanford to cover, giving 20.5, to Washington on the Farm (o/u 63)

LSU to cover, giving 20.5, to AllBarn in Baton Rouge (o/u 47.5)

Badgers to cover, giving 7.5, in East Lansing against Sparty (o/u 50)

Wisconsin/Sparty over 50

Week 7 Picks

Wisconsin to cover, giving 39.5, against Indiana in Madison (O/U 61)

Ummmmm…Badgers at home…..they put up 82 on the Hoosiers last year….Bielema loves running up the score.

Wisconsin/Hoosiers OVER 61

Might hit it in a shut out

Toledo Rockets to cover, giving 8.5, against and in Bowling Green (60.5)

Rockets are finally figuring out how to put some teams away. They are playing 20 minutes from home and will ruin BG’s homecoming.

Clemson to cover, giving 8, in College Park against the Terps (53.5)

I have been burned so many times taking Clemson on the road over the years. But you can’t help but feel this a different situation after punching Beamer and the Hokies in the face in Blacksburg. Taj Boyd has a hip issue but he did practice all week. Sammy Watkins will get loose a few times.

Oregon to cover, giving 14, in Autzen against the Sun Devils (O/U 66.5)

Even without LaMichael James, Oregon has to get more that 14 in Autzen unless #12 in Red is walking in.

Oregon/Sun Devils OVER 66.5

Ducks at home plus Brock Osweiler

Baylor to cover, getting 8, in College Station against the Aggies (O/U 76)

I am done with the Aggies. Still like Tanneyhill, but Sherman is a disaster. I think RG3 will bring this one home for the Bears, so I love getting 8.

LSU to cover, giving 17.5, in Neyland against the Vols (O/U 46)

The Hatter and the Honey Badger against a back up QB? Chalk it up.

Honcho Spread of the Week

Illinois to cover, giving 3.5, in Champaign against the Buckeyes (O/U 45)

Miller has a high ankle sprain and the Buckeyes are in disarray. Illini stops the run and can make plays/stops on D.

Illini Buckeyes UNDER 45

I am very concerned about the Buckeyes inability to score on the Illini

ALLBARN to cover, getting 2, against the Gators in ALLBARN (O/U 50.5)

Freshmen QBs on the road against the Tigers and they are getting 2? This game should be a PK, I’ll take the two and the home conference dog.

Alabama to cover, giving 27.5, in Oxford against the Rebels (O/U 44.5)

HOTTY TODDY, GOSH ALMIGHTY…..this is going to be a prison rape. I am done underestimating the Tide O.

Stanford to cover, giving 20.5, in Pullman against the Cougars (O/U 63.5)

Luck and that Cardinal D against a team that blows and I am giving less than 3 TDs. IT’S A BINGO!!!!!!

Oklahoma State, giving 7, in Austin against the Horns (O/U 64.5)

This morning on GameDay Brad Edwards said that the Cowboys control their own destiny for the National Title. They are going to be jacked up. It won’t be necessary. Weeden’s accuracy against the green Horn secondary will help easily cover that 7.

Week 6 picks

Below are the week Six picks, lines are getting tougher and not too many teams are undervalued. I think that Georgia, KState and Pittsburgh have not gotten enough respect from the bookmakers. Happy Hunting. Still planning on getting some non-football related posts up soon. Trying to figure out how to review TV and Movies.

Oklahoma to cover, giving 11, at the State Fair against the Horns (O/U 59)

I don’t think the Horns are good enough to hang with the Sooners. They haven’t played anybody yet and have two young QBs facing the best D in the Big XII. Oklahoma has to realize that this is an important statement game with LSU and Bama flying by them in the polls and Wisconsin threatening. Broyles will find the end zone multiple time.

Indiana to cover, getting 14, in Bloomington against the Illini (O/U 53.5)

Three reasons….1) Illini has the tendency to play down to the level of their competition. 2) Bloomington has been a house of horrors for Illini over the past few years. 3) I believe that Kevin Wilson is a good offense coach and can get some points put on the board.

Alabama Vandy over 41.5

Alabama has been a great call this year, but 29 is big number in a conference game for anybody but Stanford, Wisconsin, and Oregon. I think the over of 41.5 is the safer, smarter call.

West Virginia to cover, giving 20, in Morgantown against UCONN (O/U 58)

The Mountaineers are a good football team and UCONN is not. They are at home and need to build back up after getting humped by the Bayou Bengals. They want to make a statement and reestablish themselves as the favorite for the Orange Bowl. Holgerson and Geno Smith will put some points up.

Pitt to cover, giving 7, in Piscataway against the Scarlet Knights (O/U 52.5)

Rutgers blows.

Arkansas to cover, giving 10, against ALLBARN in Little Rock (O/U 64)

A young Tiger team on the road against a quality opponent….we saw what happened in Death Valley. Petrino, Tyler Wilson, and those Hogs receivers will be too much for War Eagle to handle.

Arkansas Auburn over 64

There was 317 points scored in this game last year. Petrino and Malzahn against 64, every single fucking day.

Stanford to cover, giving 29.5, against the Buffs in Palo Alto (O/U 61.5)

One of the most underrated pleasures of this year is watching Luck get late Sixes to cover theses rising lines. Ride him until he breaks.

Mike Honcho Spread of the Week

Georgia to cover, giving 3, in Kville against the Vols (O/U 55)

This Georgia team will beat mediocre football teams. Murray and Crowell will take this game by the throat and bring it home for the Dawgs.

Texas AM to cover, giving 9.5, in Lubbock against the Raiders (O/U 72)

I still think the Aggies are a good football team. They come off two heartbreakers and need this game more than anybody needs a W this week.

Kansas State to cover, getting 4, in the Little Apple against Mizzou (O/U 54)

KState beat Baylor, now they have a worse team coming into their house and they are getting points. Bruce Snyder really needs to get more credit, that guys wins a ton of football games. But because he gets fat off of JUCO transfers and sets his hat in Manhattan, KS, he doesn’t get any respect.