Week 12 Picks

1-1 midweek. Lost NIU, won Toledo (finally)

Notre Dame/BC over 47.5

The number has dropped from 60 to 47.5 due to potential weather conditions. Uncle Steveo doesn’t care about the stinking weather. The Irish offense will put up a ton of points and the over will get hit by early in the 4^th

Northwestern to cover, giving 15.5, in Evanston against the Gophers (O/U 57.5)

The Wildcats have figured it out, the early season struggles are a thing of the past. They can score in bunches are hitting hard on D. The 57.5 is too big of a number (might hit the under before kick) but they can cover the 15.5 rather easily

Vanderbilt to cover, giving 1.5,  in Knoxville against the Vols (O/U 45)

I like Franklin as a coach and might be irrationally swayed by the Dores being quarterbacked by a blood relative of Aaron Rodgers. The Vols are a hot mess.

Oregon State, getting 2, in Corvallis against the Huskies (O/U 58)

Conference home dog against a back up QB (Montana’s kid) making his first start.

Stanford, giving 17.5, on the Farm against Cal (O/U 56)

Betting on a bounce back from Luck

Kansas State, getting 7.5, in Austin against the Horns (O/U 53.5)

This line is messed up. Gotta be a lot of public $ on the Horns.

Thought hard about USC +14.5, but do not like going against the Ducks against nonSEC teams and Robert Woods at less than 100% kept me away.

Week 11 Picks

Louisville, giving 3, to cover in Papa John’s against Pitt (44)

Bet against Louisville a few times and have gotten burned. Pitt is awful on the road and may just be bad. Teddy Bridgewater is starting to make plays for the Cardinals and Charlie Strong’s D is putting hats on people.

Ohio State, giving 3, to cover in West Lafayette against the Boilermakers (46)

Braxton Miller and the Buckeye offense has put up points consistently the past few weeks and the Silver Bullet D has been strong all season. The Boilermakers have a couple of decent wins that I didn’t think they could get. But the Buckeyes aren’t the Gophers or the Illini.

Illinois, PK, to win at home against the Wolverines (48)

Denard Robinson and the Wolverines are bad in November and bad on the road. Illini Defense is tailor made to contain Denard’s scrambling and his arm has been embarrassingly bad. The Illini O will make enough plays to win comfortably.

NC State, giving 2.5, to cover in Chestnut Hill against BC (45.5)

Mike Glennon has been playing well all season and TOB’s homecoming will provide the Pack with extra motivation to get this win on the road.

Baylor, giving 20.5, to cover in Lawrence against the Jayhawks (75)

RG3 is special and should be able to throw up a bunch on the Jayhawks.

Missouri, getting 1.5, to cover in Columbia against the Longhorns (59)

Texas is a different (read: much worse) team on the road. James Franklin is a difficult QB to deal with and should be able to pull of the upset as the home dog.

TCU, getting 16, to cover in Idaho against the Broncos (58)

These teams have played a lot in the last few years. I love Gary Patterson as a coach and have faith that he comes up with a game plan to keep this close. I am FULLY aware that I am breaking one of my rules of not betting against Kellen Moore and Chris Petersen.

Georgia, giving 12.5, to cover in Athens against War Eagle (53)

Georgia seems to be find the best version of themselves lately. It still isn’t good enough to be beat a team worth a shit, but they are the best mediocre SEC team. Maybe the best by far. ALLBARN’s QB issues really bother me.

Stanford, giving 3, to cover on the Farm against the Ducks (68)

Andrew Luck, Stanford’s power, and Oregon’s recent injury issues makes the difference.

Bama, giving 18, to cover in Starksville against Miss. State (43)

The Bama D might cover the spread themselves.

Northwestern, giving 17, to cover in Evanston against Rice (68.5)

I think the win in Lincoln help this Wildcat team turn a corner that they should have turned 6 weeks ago. They can move the ball on anyone and now finish with 6. Their D is making stops and big plays.

week 10 picks

West Va to cover, giving 13, in Morgantown against Louisville (O/U 52)

Geno Smith and Holgerson at home against a BS opponent. C’mon Son

Wisconsin to cover, giving 26.5, in Madison against the Boilermakers (O/U 58)

Gotta to go down with the ship. They are at home against a bottom of the conference team and they need to right the ship in the worse way. Bucky rolls.

Northwestern to cover, getting 17.5, in Lincoln against the Huskers (O/U 63)

Just heard this morning that Taylor Martinez has a busted thumb on his throwing hand. Taking a flyer on my boy Fitz and this terribly disappointing Wildcat club. I think the Cats can score with the Huskers for a while.

Texas Tech to cover, getting 14, in Austin against the Horns (O/U 61.5)

I think the Raiders can throw on the Horns and the early start (11am central) will mitigate some of the home field advantage.

Arkansas to cover, giving 5.5, in Fayetteville against the Cocks (O/U 52)

The Hogs have burned me a bit lately but I trust the Bobby is a good enough coach to move the ball against a stout Cocks D. I can’t trust an unproven QB on the road in the SEC (outside of Nashville, Oxford, Lexington, and most of the time StarkVegas) especially when his offense is one dimensional.

Wolfpack to cover, getting 3.5, in Carter-Finley against the Heels (O/U 55)

Tom Obrien always beats the Heels.

Oregon to cover, giving 16.5, in Seattle against the Huskies (O/U 74.5)

Does Washington=Stanford? No. Is 16.5 less than the 3 touchdowns that the Ducks should get against everybody else save maybe Matt Barkley? Yes. Hitting the Ducks hard.

Sun Devils to cover, giving 8.5, in Pasadena against the Bruins (O/U 56.5)

The Bruins are awful. Devils should be able to sling it all over the yard.

LSU to Win vs Bama (+165)

Screw the 4.5, I am rolling with the Hatter. Can not wait for this game. I think the Tide’s lack of playmakers on the outside will be the difference along with special teams and turnovers.

Stanford to cover, giving 21, in Corvallis against the Beavers (O/U 61)

Andrew Luck plays QB for the Stanford Cardinal.