Week 1 NCAA

Okay in 6.5 hours football season starts for real when they kickoff at Carter-Finley in Raleigh. Today we also a start a weekly post of college football picks. The first guest prognosticator is my brother, Stockfrat (pictured with his wife Helen). Stock is a great American, a big Longhorn fan and cofounder of the Davidson Wildcat Gridiron Club. I asked Stock to make picks against the spread and write some thoughts about the games we are picking. I have not edited his posts at all and his thoughts will appear in italics. I decided to add my thoughts on the over/under line and Stock added a final score prediction. I have had a lot of trouble with formatting, the blog wouldn't let me color and bold the winners. These picks are for entertainment only so don't gamble of them. More importantly when I had a bookie, I only ran a game or two over .500. But if you want advice on west coast college basketball, i might be your man. Here is an introduction from Stockfrat himself.....

STOCK:I am extremely honored to be Steve-o's first guest prognistactor of college football picks. However, I was quite surprised when I received the invitation, as unlike some of our friends, I am not a degenerate gambler and I have absolutely no experience doing this. But do not fret, I am a psychotic college football fan, I tend to dominate fantasy football leagues, and I have been occasionally described as "witty," especially after copious amounts of domestic light beer. So, here we go..."Pick up your skirt, grab your balls, and lets go make some money." (and for full disclosure, I work in finance so if any securities regulators are reading this, I do not gamble, I have not/will not wager on these pics...nor do I condone such abhorrent behavior)

South Carolina Gamecocks at NC State Wolfpack (-5) Thursday Night Opener

OMW: Russell Wilson, Russell Wilson, Russell Wilson. The NC State QB is the reason to take the Pack and give the points. He is the rare combination of a playmaking QB that takes care of the pigskin, which is going to be very important against a Cocks D that has been spectacular the past few years. Also Stephen Garcia has a few more hours to key a professor’s car, get a DUI, or break some other team rule that keeps him out.

There is a strange similarity to Spurrier’s run in Columbia and Brian Billick’s tenure in Baltimore. Both came in as top of the profession offensive minds, but their defenses garnered the headlines. It seems to me that Spurrier hasn’t pushed his chips to the middle of the table and is satisfied sitting on outside of the knife fight that SEC, and just take potshots at the other coaches. His unwillingness to throw himself into recruiting and the inherit disadvantage in recruiting base is going to prevent success. Somebody get him in a tv booth sooner rather than later. Under 46

STOCK: Carter-Finley should be rocking with the Wolfpack faithful gunning for revenge after last year's embarrassing season-opening 34-0 loss to the Gamecocks. I would like to point out that I love attending games at Carter-Finley because of the raucous crowd and the fact that I believe it is the only school on earth that allows the fans to leave at halftime and crush beers in the parking lot before going back into the stadium. Why is this not a standard rule for athletic events, period? I digress...Playmaking QB Russell Wilson is the heart and soul of the Wolfpack and I think he is going to have a solid season if O'Brien's offense can avoid the crippling injuries that derailed last season. Although the OBC is known for his offense, South Carolina's offensive production has been anemic compared to Spurrier's squads down in Gainesville. The Cocks have been fairly impressive on the defensive side of the ball and despite losing some talent to the NFL last season, I think the South Carolina defense (particularly All-SEC LB/man-child Eric Norwood) will be the deciding factor in this game. NC State's offensive line is nothing to get excited about and they will struggle to open running lanes, which will also mitigate Russell Wilson's ability to execute play-action passes. The OBC has had entire off-season to prepare for the Wolfpack and if QB Stephen Garcia can avoid showing up in Raleigh drunk, the Gamecocks will provide just enough offense to pull out a hard-fought victory on the road.

Pick: South Carolina 24 NC State 17.

Oregon Ducks at Boise State Broncos (-4) Thursday Night

OMW: I absolutely love good west coast night match ups. Chris Petersen and Chip Kelly are 2 of the top 10 play callers right now. Kelly’s meteoric rise from New Hampshire OC to Phil Knight’s HBC in two years has been very impressive. But with only 9 returning starters I think Oregon falls shorts and Boise State is able to hold serve (and cover) on the blue turf. Kellen Moore and experienced D will have the Broncos ahead from the get go. Under 64

STOCK: Last year an unranked Boise State team waltzed into Autzen stadium and upset the #17 ranked Ducks. After that initial, chippy encounter, these two teams already hate each other and #14 ranked Boise State and #16 ranked Oregon both have BCS hopes on the line with their first game of the season. The Ducks have a new coach in former OC Chip Kelley, but they return talented QB Jeremiah Masoli to run their explosive spread offense. Yes, Boise's Soph. QB Kellen Moore shredded the Ducks secondary last year and they are playing at home on the Blue Turf, where their last non-bowl loss occurred in 2001. However, I believe that the Ducks are too athletic and their running game is far superior than the bush league competition that Boise routinely faces in the WAC. Plus, unless Boise State runs the Statue of Liberty play as their base offense, they shouldn't be able to consistently run the ball against Oregon and their experienced group of LB's. A healthy Walther Thurmond III will provide Oregon with a shutdown corner to slow down the Boise passing attack. This one should prove to be a shootout and I know that I'm picking another road victory here at a venue where the home team never loses...but I'm going with the Ducks and their hideous uniforms.

Pick: Oregon 35 Boise State 28

Nevada Wolfpack at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-14)

OMW: Think the Irish win, but take the two touchdowns and Nevada. I will believe the Irish D can stop somebody when I see it. Nevada’s QB, Colin Kaepernick, should be able to hang with Jimmy and the receivers in a shootout for awhile. He is going to have to hang in for my prediction to come true, because I am seeing a huge day out of #7 (5TDs).

I think the bigger issue with the Irish is whether or not Weis has the stones to coach from the booth. I know it is unusual and a little bit bush league, but his greatest success came in the booth calling plays for the Pats. This team would be best served with Weis and Tenuta in the booth and some other idiot, probably Corwin Brown on the sidelines with Powlus in charge of Clausen. Big Charlie’s refusal to do this will cost them a game this year (Michigan State). Over 61.5

STOCK: Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick puts up video game stats and he is very slippery and hard to contain. However, once again, he plays in the WAC, where many teams would struggle to make the Class 5A state playoffs in my high school football conference in West Texas. Notre Dame has improved and should have a physical running attack with an experienced line and a solid group of backs. If QB Jimmy Clausen can keep the hair gel out of his eyes and complete some passes to WR's Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, and TE Kyle Rudolph, then Notre Dame should throw up some points against the pitiful Nevada secondary. Since it's the season opener and expectations are so high among Catholics after last year's disastrous Irish season, I think the Irish will press a bit and start out shaky. Kaepernick will make some plays and keep Nevada in the game, but the Irish will grind them up and pull away early in the 2nd half....but not enough to cover the -14 spread. Rocket Ismail, Joe Montana, and Tim Brown are not walking through that door.

Pick: Notre Dame 34 Nevada 21

Georgia Dawgs at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-5.5)

OMW: I am taking the Cowboys and giving Richt and the Ginger Assassin the points. Don’t really feel all that good about it, just crossing my fingers and hoping that the fact that they have now have a DC who isn’t dumb enough to hire Dumb that they will improve. Everybody seems to be comparing this Georgia team to the DJ Shockley Dawgs and think they are going to surprise some people……I don’t. I see 4 losses. If the Cowboys come out of this game with a W and looking good, I am going to snap up some OSU gear and start screaming about them beating Texas on Halloween. I would feel even more confident if Gundy was just smart, not smart and insane. Under 61

STOCK: No one will mistake Joe Cox and Caleb King for Matt Stafford and Knowshon Moreno. Georgia will have a solid season, but 2009 is the season that Okie State Cowpoke nation has been waiting for and OSU returns a juggernaut of offensive talent down in Stillwater. Boone Pickens stadium will be out of control and I truly believe this is the year that Oklahoma State truly scares the $hit out of Texas and Oklahoma (and possibly upsets one, if not both) in pursuit of the Big 12 South title. As a lifelong diehard Texas Longhorn fan, I can personally attest to the explosive nature of OSU's offense, as I usually find skidmarks in my britches at halftime of every Texas/OSU game. Cowboys QB Zach Robinson, WR Dez Bryant, and RB Kendall Hunter will light up the scoreboard and the usually porous OSU defense will do enough (their LB's are solid) to slow down the Bulldogs. Sorry Big Game Nichols, despite their SEC talent, the 'Dogs ain't pulling this one off in Stillwater...and the Cowboys are going to cover...easily.

Pick: Oklahoma State 38 Georgia 28

BYU Cougars vs Oklahoma Sooners (-22) at JerryWorld in Arlington, TX

OMW: Starting to think that Bradford is going to repeat as the Heisman winner. The dude is a complete stud. I am not worried about the rebuilt offensive line. Bradford can run this offense with his eyes closed and out of the shotgun he will have time to throw. Stoops and Co. have made it a tradition slapping around the “mid majors” (TCU) early in the season. And the defense will be able to hold down Max Hall and the Cougar offense enough to cover the spread. Take the Sooners and give the points. Over 67.5

STOCK: I know the line is high, but the Sooners are playing at night at the Cowboys' obnoxious new Jerry Jones Football stadium in Arlington, TX. Generally, BYU doesn't travel well unless Joseph Smith is searching for the ancient Golden Plates of the Book of Mormon..dum...dum...dum...dum. Thus, the crowd will be extremely pro-Oklahoma Land Squatter. BYU has underrated QB Max Hall, a productive Samoan RB, and a plethora of very pale, yet athletic, Morman receivers in WR Jacobsen (but he went to Southlake Carroll HS in Texas...so I hate him) and TE's George and Pitta. However, BYU has a young OL and a suspect secondary..two terrible things to possess when playing against the Evil Empire of Oklahoma. The Sooners have 4 new starters on the OL, but Heisman QB Bradford, RB's Murray and Brown, and the nasty OU front 7, will more than make up for any rookie OL mistakes. The entire BYU squad is going to wish they were either on a mission or converting to Scientology after this one. OU's atrocious fight song "Boomer Sooner" will be pIaying all night long. I'm sure Bob "Big Game" Stoops will try to send a message on the scoreboard to make Sooner nation feel better about their constant BCS embarrassments and their theft of the 2008 Big 12 South Title. No, I'm not bitter about last season. And for any of you Mormons out there that probably would never read this blog...just like Stan Marsh, I actually like Mormons, I'm just frustrated that Utah restricts the alcohol content of its beer to 3.2%, and I suspect that Joseph Smith was an early L. Ron Hubbard.

Pick: Oklahoma 52 BYU 24

Missouri Tigers against Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5) in St.Louis, Dome, Neutral site

OMW: If you read my Big Ten preview you know how high I am on the Illini. I am taking Zooker, Juice and Regis here and giving the points. Missouri has lost a ton from last year and I think that Pinkel is an idiot and a coward for not taking the UW Husky job in the offseason. But make a point to watch this game, Blaine Gabbert (So.) is taking over for Chase Daniel. Coming out of high school he was a monster recruit (#2 dual threat behind Terrelle Pryor), it will be interesting to see if he can develop and win some game as an underdog in the crappy Big 12 North. Don’t let anybody tell you different, still crappy. Over 61

STOCK: The Illini are loaded on offense with QB Juice Williams (fantastic name by the way) leading the way for a dangerous receiving corps and a quick quartet of RB's. Conversely, Mizzou lost QB Chase Daniel (another Southlake Carroll pretty boy), WR Jeremy Maclin, and TE Coffmann to the NFL. Mizzou has some young talent to fill their shoes in QB Gabbert and RB Washington, but the squad has question marks everywhere and their pass defense was ranked 2nd to last in FBS football last season. If they can eventually get their dynamic offensive system clicking, by season's end Mizzou may contend for the Big 12 North title (which isn't a big deal), but starting off the season against a seasoned, explosive offense in Illinois should prove too much for the Tigers' shaky defense. I hate the Big 10 but I think Illinois will pull off the victory without covering. The Illini have recently been terrible against the spread in non-conference games (I blame Ron Zook's intellect) so I am calling this one tight.

Pick: Illinois 34 Missouri 28

Baylor Bears at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-2.5)

OMW: Unless you are a fan of Clemson, home field advantage doesn’t mean much in Winston Salem. I am taking Briles, Griffin, and the Bears over Grobe and Skinner. I don’t really have a great feeling about this game and Wake won by 4 tds in David Koreshville last year. But I like Briles as a playcaller and love Griffin’s playmaking ability. Over 53.

STOCK: The Deacons lost a ridiculous amount of defensive talent to graduation last season and I am DEFINITELY not sold on Senior QB Riley Skinner, he has a little bit too much Joe Cain or Jonathan Moxon in him for my taste...plus he takes pictures of himself naked. True Story. Expectations are justifiably high for Baylor as Coach Art Briles (BTW my Abilene Eagles broke his Stephenville, TX HS's 51 game home winning streak my senior year...I'm not bragging...yes I am) is perfecting his spread offense and bringing in some solid recruits down to Waco. By season's end everyone in the country will know who Baylor soph QB Robert "Faster than Vince Young and Vastly More Intelligent" Griffin is. Griffin is not only Baylor's QB, but he's a 6'3 212 lb All American in track who makes excellent decisions with the ball and broke an FBS record by making 209 pass attempts without an INT. As my lovely Demon Deacon wife constantly reminds me, Wake Forest is currently enjoying its best era in school history (and Jim Grobe is a great coach) and they might contend for the ACC's Atlantic division by the end of the year..blah..blah..blah....Unfortunately for her, Griffin is going to be THE difference in this game against Wake's unproven new defensive starters, he is that talented. Despite a shoddy supporting cast, Griffin will channel his inner Vince Young to pull off the upset in Winston-Salem...the 2009 Robert Griffin coming out party begins...too bad he went to Baylor.

Baylor 27 Wake Forest 24

Minnesota Gold Gophers at Syracuse Orangemen (+7)

OMW: LOCK OF THE WEEK. Crappy Syracuse team with a point guard starting his first game in five years against a Big Ten team, the Gophers, and only getting a touchdown and an extra point? Free money. Brewster has done a nice job in his cupcake nonconference games since taking over and he has got himself a QB, Adam Weber, who could turn into a good player if he stops turning it over at an epic rate. Watching Paulus “play” QB for the Orange is going to be one of the many exciting subplots to a season that has a good chance to go down as one of the greatest in history. Under 47

STOCK: Who cares? I'm getting tired of writing and I'm definitely sure you are tired of reading my drivel. Syracuse is so miserable that former Duke backup PG Greg Paulus is starting at QB after a 5 year layoff from football. Do I need to analyze anything else? There is so much to ridicule and so many inappropriate jokes running through my mind...for the sake of brevity...I conclude that both of these teams suck but Syracuse (and Duke basketball) REALLY REALLY sucks.

Minnesota 35 Syracuse 14

Virgina Tech Hokies vs Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5) at the GA Dome in Atlanta

OMW: Tommy Bowden is no Frank Beamer, but after seeing Saban eviscerate the Tigers in last years opener I am taking the Tide and giving the points. There was never a doubt that Jones and Ingram were going to play, but the player to watch is new QB Greg McElroy. I watched their spring game this year and not only was he miles ahead of the other Tide QBs, he was farther along with more talent than JPW (who I liked) was last year. He will become a huge story as I have the Tide winning the West for a rematch against Urban, Jesus, and that Gator D back in ATL in December.

I think this Va Tech teams has a good shot as anybody else (Paul Johnson and GT) of winning the ACC, but they aren’t the type of Offense that can expose the Bama D. Outside of the Gators I think it takes one of those Big 12 offenses with timing passing games run by maestro QBs to expose them. Tyrod Taylor is not that QB and the Hokies are not that offense. Over 38

STOCK: The season-ending ACL injury to the Hokies' stud RB Evans has severely dampened Va Tech's aspirations of running effectively against Bama’s dominating defense. Hokies QB Tyrod Taylor is dangerous, but Bama's DL is a brick wall and their LB's and secondary will swarm to the ball and contain the running game. Thus, this game comes down to Tyrod Taylor beating Alabama with his arm, and that is highly unlikely. Yes, Va Tech has a great defense as well, but it's nothing that Alabama isn't used to facing routinely in the SEC. New Tide QB Greg McElroy (the guy that replaced Chase Daniel at Southlake Carroll) has been sufficiently groomed while sitting behind 'Two a Days" own John Parker Wilson and McElroy has enough athletes around him to make a few plays and win the game. This is going to be a defensive struggle, but the Tide will Roll.

Alabama 24 Virginia Tech 13

Cincy Bearcats at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-5) (Labor Day)

OMW: Love Brian Kelly, like Tony Pike but taking Schiano and the Knights and giving the points in Piscataway. Cincy has lost too much and it is going to fun watching Kelly lobby for the Penn State job while his team sucks (State College should give him the job). Over 48.5

STOCK: Both of these teams lost a ton of talent to graduation. I don't really care about the Big East so I would call this a push. However, current Rutgers TE Coach/Recruiting Coordinator Joe Susan was the head coach of my Davidson team's 10-0 perfect season in 2000. Thus, I'm sure Coach Susan will put on his knee brace and tell some random story to get his TE's fired up to make a crucial game-winning scoop block at the goal line. Pandemonium in Piscataway, NJ. But the Scarlet Knights won't cover. I have no idea what I'm talking about. Don't bet on this game.

Rutgers 24 Cincinnati 21

Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (Labor Day)

OMW: I am pretty sure that Miami only has one QB on the roster right now, so I am not really sure how they ran any scout team stuff this week. They are coming out of September 0-4 and Shannon is going to have to scramble save his job (he will). But I don’t think we will ever see Miami as regular member of the top ten again. Other schools have gotten smarter, while they have got dumber (stop hiring Clinton cabinet members as University presidents). They don’t have the money to compete and while there recruiting rankings have been high, I am pretty sure that ATH is not a real football position. And when you bring in 11 of them hoping some play CB, Slot, or QB you are swimming up stream. I am taking the Seminoles and giving the points. Under 48.

STOCK: Neither of these hated rivals are the offensive juggernauts of season's past. This game will come down to defense. Despite the loss of DE Everette Brown to the Carolina Panthers and DC Mickey Andrews to retirement....if the entire Seminole team can avoid academic expulsion from cheating, the still stingy FSU defense and solid running game will snuff out Randy Shannon's upstarts (i.e. QB Jacory Harris and the usual assortment of lighting fast WR's and RB's at da U). This should another defensive struggle, but if history is any indication, it will be a close game and FSU will not cover.

Florida State 20 Miami 14